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07/26/2003 Archived Entry: "dead men walking"

TOP-TIER DEMOCRATS TRY TO LOSE "DEAD MEN WALKING": The Washington Times reports that the leading Democratic presidential candidates, apparently supporters of Sen. John Kerry in particular, are urging the bottom-tier aspirants to get out of the race to clear the field for the eventual nominee.

While this desire is understandable, I don't really see how Kerry or any of the other leading candidates would benefit significantly if Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Mosley-Braun and maybe even Bob Graham all dropped out of the race. John Edwards dropping out would at least free up some of the trial lawyers' financial contributions to go to other candidates who are polling better, but I'm not sure that even his withdrawal would have any real impact on the polls. The problem isn't really the glut of candidates at the bottom, who aren't raising any real money or polling higher than the low single digits. The problem is that there is no clear front-runner, just a glut of candidates nipping at each other's heels in the top tier.

Kerry hasn't been able to shake Howard Dean, particularly in New Hampshire. Dean has emerged as a serious candidate for the nomination, but not someone leading Democrats are comfortable could beat President Bush. Richard Gephardt and Joe Lieberman are not doing as well as they should be and both have had fairly disappointing fundraising totals. But they are also both hanging on to the top tier. Gephardt still leads in Iowa, albeit by a reduced margin, according to most polls I've seen and might be in the top three candidates in New Hamsphire. Lieberman still tops some national polls and is strong in South Carolina. The dynamic of the race is only likely to change if one of these candidates decides they can't win and decides to get out.

But there are reasons to believe that might be unlikely to happen. Gephardt's political career is over if he doesn't win the nomination. If Kerry loses to New Hampshire to Dean, his bid may flounder and any of the rest of the top-tier candidates - and maybe even John Edwards - could see their viability renewed if pressed into service as a "stop Dean" candidate. Edwards might not be able to hold onto his Senate seat, so he has an incentive to stay in the Democratic presidential race as long as he can continue to draw trial lawyer contributions. Even if he loses, somebody might pick him for veep, which they won't do if he is a floundering candidate for reelection to the Senate. And although he is unlikely to have any impamct, Sharpton is exactly the kind of candidate who would stay in the race regardless of viability.

The Dems may just need to get used to waiting for Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina to determine their front-runner.