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05/28/2004 Archived Entry: "Liberal support slipping: Poll"

Posted by steve @ 08:03 PM EST [Link]

I'M NOT HAPPY: Canadian conservatives across the blogosphere are crowing today over the release of a new poll that shows Liberal support has dropped considerably.

The Liberals have 38 per cent support among decided voters — a three percentage point drop since last month — while the Conservatives and New Democrats are climbing, especially in Ontario.

The poll conducted for the Star and La Presse, shows Liberal support bleeding to the Conservatives, at 30.4 per cent, and the NDP, at 18 per cent. The Bloc Québécois is at 10.7 per cent and support for other parties is at 2.8 per cent. The Tory and NDP numbers nationally represent two percentage point climbs for each of them since April.

If the trend continue -- and if you know me you know I don't believe in trends -- we can expect a minority Liberal government; or as I like to phrase it: the worst of all possible worlds.

Let's be realistic, if the Liberals do end up with a minority government they won't be looking to the Tories for their support. They'll either call the NDP or the Bloc Quebecois. Both are rather left of center and both would pull the Liberals over to the political left. You know what means: tax and spend! I'll be honest, I'd sooner have a majority Liberal government over a minority Liberal government nearly every day of the week.

So who may be responsible for this shift away from the Liberals? The provincial Liberals. A budget in Ontario which broke every single promise made by Dalton McGuinty during last year's provincial election has pretty well angered Ontarians, meaning the province may be in play for the first time since the 1980s. Will it be enough though?

Read on.