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06/23/2004 Archived Entry: "Can. Election prediction"

Posted by steve @ 01:51 AM EST [Link]

STEVE PICKS THE WINNER OF THE CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION: And it won't be the Canadian people.

The recent slide by the Conservative Party I think effectively kills any realistic shot that they had of forming a majority government, assuming you thought it was realistic to begin with. I think it's still possible that they will come out with the most seats, indeed Mike Duffy showed some stats Tuesday evening that the Conservatives could see up to about a half dozen more MPs than the Liberals, but they won't form the next government.

It all comes down to the choice of dance partners and the Conservatives are the odd man out on everyone's dance cards. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois are both socialists and I doubt that Conservative voters would be pleased with a coalition going in that direction. For the Liberals, they could enter into a coalition with either far left party. The only possible fit the Conservatives could pull off would be with the Liberals.

That's something I think we can rule out though it's the best possible result with a minority Conservative victory.

If the Conservatives are asked to form a government I see them flailing around uselessly while the Liberals and the New Democrats look into each other's eyes and realize that power turns everyone on. The Liberals want to keep it, the NDP would like to taste it on the federal level. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if there's been talk behind the scenes already considering NDP leader Jack Layton's announcement pulling back from his inheritance tax promise.

And the big loser in all of this will be the Canadian people. The Liberal Party will be pulled further to the left as a concession to the NDP and we'll have the privilege of paying for it.