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06/29/2004 Archived Entry: "The numbers"

Posted by steve @ 04:08 AM EST [Link]

WHAT'S THIS?: I couldn't sleep so I went back online to check the latest numbers and I just noticed something rather interesting. It takes 155 seats to form a majority in our current Parliament and at this moment the Liberals have 135, the Conservatives 99, the Bloc Quebecois 54, the NDP 19, and Independent at 1.

Now my premise has always been a Liberal/NDP coalition government. Do the math though: that's 154 seats. Assuming, of course, that the numbers don't change again.

Assuming that the Liberals don't want to play ball with the Bloc Quebecois, that leaves Mr. Independent -- Surrey North MP Chuck Cadman -- as a very powerful person. Though he is a conservative (who was ditched by his party), Cadman stated tonight (before all the results were in) that he would take a poll of his riding to determine who he should ally himself with. A lone MP could spell the balance of power for a Liberal minority government.

Of course, this is a simplistic way of looking at things. It's pretty easy to imagine that a bunch of Bloc Quebecois MPs will vote with the Liberals for two reasons: 1) the leftward shift that the socialist NDP will induce will cause Liberal policies to fall closer to the socialist BQ's platform, and 2) the Bloc has no reason to look forward to another quick election as they likely wouldn't repeat their impressive showing at the polls.

Either way, the next couple of days are going to be interesting.

Replies: 4 comments

I don't think it's fair to say that Chuck Cadman was "ditched by his party".

He didn't get the Conservative nomination because the riding association was overwhelmed by hundreds of last-minute members (of one ethnic group, identity unknown and irrelevant) who put their own guy in. Since all of that was done in accordance with party rules, the party had no choice but to accept the result.

If anyone is to blame, it would be Cadman taking the re-nomination for granted and not getting his supporters to renew their memberships.

Clearly the party has to review its nomination process, but they are largely blameless on this one.

Posted by Doug @ 06/29/2004 06:38 AM EST

Coalitions, minority governments, etc... Canadian elections are so much more interesting to me than our own down south here. I don't know that that would mean I would prefer a parliamentary system, but following elections like sporting events is more fun when there are more moving parts.

Posted by Mac @ 06/29/2004 10:33 AM EST

I don't even think Cadman would put the Liberal/NDP coalition over the top.

Wouldn't the Liberals have to name a Speaker from the ruling party...and the Speaker can't vote, am I right?

So if Cadman goes Conservative (which he should if he has any dignity or honour) then theoretically the Libs + NDP have only 153 seats.

The Conservatives and the Bloc would then have 154 seats between them...

I don't think things could possibly have worked out any stranger...do people even realize how screwed up this is?

Posted by Billy @ 06/29/2004 02:27 PM EST

He didn't get the Conservative nomination because the riding association was overwhelmed by hundreds of last-minute members (of one ethnic group, identity unknown and irrelevant) who put their own guy in. Since all of that was done in accordance with party rules, the party had no choice but to accept the result.

I'll grant you that but one does have to wonder why a sitting MP, one with a pretty decent career in opposition as Justice Critic, would even have to worry about a concerted effort to displace him as a nominated candidate.

Posted by Steve Martinovich @ 06/29/2004 04:03 PM EST