Hadley hack-in reveals hidden truths
By Dennis T. Avery
Copenhagen has predictably brought out a new round of claims that humanity is frying the planet. Mother Nature, however, has told us to expect only about 0.5 degree of further warming over the next several centuries. Which is right, Mother Nature or the computerized global climate models championed by Al Gore?
Apparently, we got a revealing glimpse of truth when a hacker recently published files taken from Britain's Hadley Climate Research Unit—ground zero for the warming alarmists. The hacker, who published on an anonymous Russian site, said: "We feel that climate science is, in the current situation, too important to be kept under wraps." Hadley has confirmed the hack-in.
One of the alleged emails has Kevin Trenberth of the U.S. National Center on Climate Research, saying to his fellow believers in man-made warming:
Trenberth is saying the data he's getting can't be right because they don't confirm his theory that the Modern Warming is mostly man-made. But there's an old saying in science: "If your data don't confirm your theory, get a new theory."
We've never observed the "runaway warming" predicted by the computerized climate models. The warming from 1976–1998 was not significantly stronger or longer than the warming from 1915–1940—which was too early to be caused by human-emitted CO2. Both were followed by coolings, not CO2 runaways.
My book, Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years, offers quite a different theory on our global warming—and cites hundreds of peer-reviewed studies documenting a long, moderate, solar-driven climate cycle that goes back a million years. The evidence: oxygen isotopes in ice cores; microfossils in seabed sediments; fossil pollen; and even the summer skies in old museum paintings, which shifted from sunny in the Medieval Warming to cloudy during the Little Ice Age and then back again after 1850. That longer cycle gave us the Medieval and Roman warmings and the recent Little Ice Age.
We see the current global cooling as triggered by our largest heat sink, the Pacific Ocean, which has a 60-year cycle superimposed on the longer 1,500-year cycle. The Pacific cooling will frost Dr. Trenberth's tootsies until about 2038.
The 1500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles deliver about half their total warming in their first few decades, which seems to have been the 0.5 warming from 1850-1940. Then it will get a bit warmer, erratically, probably totaling half a degree Celsius over the next several centuries—until the next "little ice age" or Big One.
Despite the UN's claims, we've never found a "human fingerprint" on the Modern Warming. The computer models all predict man-made warming will produce a strong warming 5 kilometers over the equator—but we've had a slight cooling there instead. Another reason for a re-think, Dr. Trenberth?
Since the warming is unstoppable, we must anyway leave Al Gore with his unsold carbon offsets and adapt to Mother Nature.
Dennis T. Avery is an environmental economist, and a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC. He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years, Readers may write him at PO Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421 or email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
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