home > this article
In their own faces
By Daniel M. Ryan
Eight months ago, the Dems got the idea that the 2018 midterm elections would be a “Blue Wave.” It would switch not just the House but the Senate into Democrat hands. A favourable turnover ratio for Dems in state-level special elections was magnified into nothing less than 2010 in reverse. More than! The coalition of the ascendant would rise up, flip no less than both houses of Congress, and put President Trump in the same awkward position that a certain recent President had to occupy. The election of 2016 will be avenged!
But now? All that’s left of the Blue Wave narrative is “high turnout election.” As this is written, the handicappers and narrative-spinners say that the Dems might win the House – or they might not. The Pubbies have a solid chance at adding to their majority in the Senate. Instead of seeing lib pundits chortling over anxious Republicans distancing themselves from President Trump, we see more than a few Democrats distancing themselves from their own party. Just like 2010, right?
Unless the Dems’ get-out-the-vote efforts wreak a near-marvel, the Blue Wave will prove to be a Blue Mirage. This despite the fact that Dems had not one but two October Surprises. The first one was the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation, which wasn’t all that hard to see through. Remember the demands for an unprecedentedly huge volume of documents, much more than any other nominee in history? Kamala Harris’ grandstanding? The grandstanding of T-Bone Spartacus? The blatant disparity between the way the Dems treated Justice Kavanaugh and the way the Pubbies treated Justices Kagan in ‘10 and Ginsberg in ‘93? The Kavanaugh nomination had turned into a raucous clown show when the only Washington folks who knew Christine Blasey-Ford were Dianne Feinstein, her staffers, and a few reporters at the Washington Post. At minimum, the timing of the unveiling of her accusations was suspect. Even more suspect was the dropping of her case like yesterday’s clickbait after Justice Kavanaugh was confirmed. It’s no surprise that a recent poll shows that ~55% of women believed that the Democrats were "just using the allegations" to block Kavanaugh. Two copycat accusations, one from Julie Swetnick and the other from a mysterious Jane Doe whose real name is Judy Munro-Leighton, faded into hot air when both women backed away. Ms. Munro-Leighton, the second ‘very credible’ accuser handled by Michael Avenatti, admitted that her accusation had been “a tactic.” She also admitted that she had never so much as met Justice Kavanaugh. Thanks to Chuck Grassley, we had the unusual experience of seeing politically-motivated accusations fall apart in real time.
The second October Surprise was the so-called migrant caravan (now three or four of them.) Although it was definitely organized, and perhaps orchestrated to coincide with the midterms, it was not stage-managed in the way the Kavanaugh circus was. Again, the puff-pieces were disseminated; again, embedded with emotional manipulation calculated to make us feel awful about border control. And again, the narrative fell apart. Independent journalists found signs that some of them were just plain economic migrants, belying the cries about asylum. More seriously impugning those claims was the migrants’ rejection of asylum from Mexico. This put them on the wrong side of common sense, which says that safety in Mexico is a lot better than being hunted down in Honduras. It also put them on the wrong side of U.S. law, which says that the United States is fully within its rights to reject claims of asylum after the claimants reject another country’s offer. See U.S. Code 1158 (a) 2, which sets a lower bar for rejection than “applicants spurned an offer from another country which would have saved them from travelling another thousand miles.” If you’re choosy, you ain’t begging.
Moving to horrific lawbreaking, the rabbi of the Tree of Life synagogue, Jeffrey Myers, graciously invited President Trump to visit the synagogue after the horrid slaughter of eleven elderly Jews in the middle of Saturday worship. After Trump’s visit. Rabbi Myers said he was “surprised and pleased” to see President Trump consoling him and listening to him. President Trump remembered that he was not going to a political event, not even a state event. He remembered that he was going to listen to and console a man suffering a horrible loss. Contrast that to the pols who tried to blame Trump for the murders. As with Dr. Blasey-Ford, we see a pattern of treating someone’s personal loss as nothing more than a tool for sabotaging Trump.
There’s a pattern to recognize: a pattern of manipulation that’s become blatant and more inept. It isn’t just we who are noticing. The progs have ticked off self-identified centre-leftist Tim Pool. He has to explain, again and again, that he’s not a Trump supporter, Republican, or Conservative: he’s just a street liberal who can’t stand what the gated-community SJWs have done to his side.
As of this writing, the polls and other augurs are inconclusive with respect to the House. The only thing clear is the huge early-voter turnout, which very much includes Republicans righteously angered by all of the above. Some prog-inclined pundit are still hoping for huge turnout from the so-called coalition of the ascendant to swing the House to the Dems. But all of them, to my knowledge, have given up on the Senate.
The Perfect Hedge, And What Went Wrong
An old, long-retired stockbroker had a saying: “If you found the perfect hedge, something’s wrong.” He retired long before the pre-’08 bubble climaxed. Even if he hadn’t, he wouldn’t have been listened to. He knew jack-all about advanced statistics. He only knew how Mr. Market whaps folks around, especially people who think they’ve fenced off Major Murphy.
The Dems’ strategy was to bank on the coalition of the ascendant, strengthened in numbers by mass legal and illegal immigration, and demography. They dreamed of a United States that was California writ large: a one-and-a-half party state in which ascendant Democrats routinely clobbered me-too Republicans. They dared to dream of political hegemony.
Note that this audacious hope was rooted in demographic extrapolation, and it depends upon millions of illegal immigrants being given both amnesty and voting rights. Never mind that this plan involves a government choosing an electorate more to its liking: the opposite of consent-of-the-governed democracy. If they thought at all of this implication, they weren’t bothered by it.
When looked at with sober eyes, this plan has two flaws. The first flaw is that the demographic extrapolation, like an extrapolation of time past, would fall apart because the real world doesn’t co-operate with it. The second flaw is its dependence upon amnesty. It depends upon someone like President Bush offering a 1986-style amnesty to all those illegal immigrants, an amnesty that would make the original ‘86 amnesty an actionable precedent going forward. Actionable enough to give future Dems the power to dissolve the people and ‘elect’ a new one.
To cover these two flaws, the progs relied on their perfect hedge. In a nutshell, their perfect hedge is character assassination, reinforced in more than a few cases by de-platforming, de-jobbing and other jargon terms which mean ruining lives.
If movement Republicans put “ascendant” and California together, they were castigated as “racist.” If ordinary folks saw their very citizenship being eroded, they were called a variety of bad names. We all know the process; some of us know it overly well.
Remember the Bush years and the libs who ventured from their gated community to lecture Middle Americans about their “real interests”? Since those lecturers defined “real interests” to mean pocketbook issues, the 2016 election sure saw allegorical Kansans voting their real interests. Trump promised to use tariffs to bring back jobs to hollowed-out heartlands. He promised to bring back coal. He promised to crack down in illegal immigrants so as to raise wages. As the economic stats show, the unemployment rate and jobless claims are now at decades’ lows. Real wages are rising, mostso for people with high-school educations. You’d think that those lecturers would’ve acknowledged that Trump voters voted their “real interests,” even if that acknowledgement were grudging.
Instead, Joe Normal got slapped in the face. He heard his “real interests” portrayed as “xenophobia,” “nativism”, just plain silly, and of course as “racist.” He was chided when he didn’t and damned when he did.
At micro level, this encapsulates the workings of the hedge: the supposedly perfect hedge. So what went wrong?
Simply put, the progs believe their own malarkey. They get high on their own supply. Crucial to those lecturers’ lectures was the notion that Joe Normal was bewitched by electro-magic radiation from Fox News. This is not propaganda; they really believe it. Believe it to the point where they think that Joe is more manipulable than he actually is. Ensconced in their self-created bubble, they did not realize that they were treating the political culture like Lt. Calley treated Vietnam villages. Fixated on blaming President Trump, even under circumstances that were plainly absurd, they forgot the common-sense wisdom which says a successful politician is not the creator of a democratic uprising: he’s the effect of one.
To the extent that progs grasped this, with few exceptions, they concluded that they should punish Trump’s supporters too. As we know, “punish” means deploying character assassination and in some cases worse. Take a moment to think about how this dovetails with “dissolving the people and electing a new one.”
They overused the hedge, above and beyond the point of overbearing. To the point where Dem candidates in trouble have been obliged to distance themselves from their own party.
Have you had the experience of watching CNN or MSNBC, and instead of feeling triggered you feel bewildered? Instead of your blood pressure rising, did your eyes widen and your neck swivel as if you were looking for a convenient exit? Afterwards, instead of ruminating, did you look for something to distract yourself from what you just saw? In sum, did you act like you just stepped in and out of a loony bin?
If so, you’ve experienced at gut level the prog media delegitimizing themselves. If this goes on, there’ll be a point where a prog pundit calling you “racist” will affect you no more than Triumph the Insult Comic Dog or NPC Guy. There’ll be a point where you’ll laugh along to a Bill Maher special because you’re laughing at Mr. Maher.
Instead of being disciplined and controlled by increasingly blatant manipulation, we’re becoming cauterized by it. Like Donald Trump himself, we can be heart-rent by the synagogue shooting and yet grasp that “‘Racist’ is Used to Describe ‘Every Republican That’s Winning’. That’s why the perfect hedge is going wrong.
By all means, get to the polls. Even if “your vote doesn’t count,” it counts enough to say that you’re fed up with being insulted. That counts a lot more than calculating whether your vote will lead to a Red Wave. Little ballots joining together make a formidable Black Swan.
Daniel M. Ryan, as Nxtblg, is spinning his wheels at Steemit.