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The big 'If' Republicans win

By Mark Alexander
web posted September 19, 2022

"Imagine what we can do if we can protect and better yet expand our majority in the Senate." —Kamala Harris

So, after Joe Biden spewed an unprecedented tirade of partisan vitriol against Republicans earlier this month, emphasizing the Demos' midterm "TRUMP!" strategy, just "imagine what [they] can do if [they] can expand [their] majority in the Senate"!

With a Joe Manchin-proof majority, can you say "nuclear option" on the filibuster? As Harris also declared, "Our president has said he will not let the filibuster get in the way."

Controlling the Senate is critical in order to pass the so-called Women's Health Protection Act to reinstate abortion rights nationwide. It's critical to codify their so-called "voter rights" bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy into federal law, ensuring Democrat majorities in the House and Senate in perpetuity. Recall that Biden has already issued Executive Order 14019, his "all of government" plan mandating all federal agencies make it a priority to increase voter registration. Oh, and no problem seating Biden's next Supreme Court nominee, who will be far to the left of his last one, Ketanji Brown Jackson.

These and many other leftist legislative objectives are precisely why Demos are pulling out all the stops in order to expand control of the Senate and contain House losses in November. Make no mistake, Biden may be non compos mentis, but his socialist handlers are masters at tactical manipulation of public opinion.

In case you haven't noticed, the Leftmedia talkingheads and scribes, and some of their Right-thinking media counterparts, are doing what they always do: insisting they have the most accurate crystal ball on upcoming election outcomes. Of course, commercial media outlets constantly churn election poll clickbait because their advertising revenues depend on it, which is to say that any commercial media outlet has an inherent conflict of interest. But they also churn polls in order to accomplish the "Pollaganda Effect," a hybrid word mix of polling and propaganda to describe how the media uses polls as propaganda — and the Leftmedia has mastered the pollaganda effect. Political polls, which often masquerade as "objective sampling," most often include a particular bias — who is asked what, when, and how. Every commercial media outlet has an inherent conflict of interest in its polling.

The following headlines are typical of predictions Democrats are turning back the massive midterm election Republican wave that was predicted two months ago, when there was nothing but bad news about Biden and company...

Typical of the handwringing and denials on the Right...

When I have mentioned "midterm elections" this year, I have consistently noted, "if" not "when" Republicans win midterm majorities, causing some heartburn among our regular readers. I never count chickens until they hatch, and when it comes to Republican incumbents and new-entry candidates, they campaign as if the playing field were fair. It has not been fair for decades, certainly not since Ronald Reagan, who knew how to handle the media without creating enemies.

Part of my midterm caution regards how polling is interpreted. For example, a recent Wall Street Journal poll determined "68% of Americans think the nation is headed in the wrong direction, including 73% of independents." Likewise, an NBC News poll declared "three-quarters of voters saying the county is headed in the wrong direction." But it is an error to assume a majority of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction for the same reason. Many of those may respond that way because they do not think Biden is taking the nation to the left fast enough. Biden's approval numbers must also take this perspective into account.

Moreover, Republicans have not developed a national message to counteract the Left's perennial winning "hate and division" strategy.

As I noted recently, Democrats are doing everything possible to avoid a midterm bloodbath like the one suffered by their last first-term president. In the 2010 midterm election, Barack Obama was the catalyst for a 63-seat Republican gain in the House (the largest seat shift since 1948) and a seven-seat gain in the Senate. In the states, Republicans gained six governor's mansions and flipped 20 state legislative chambers to Republican control. Of course, in 2010, Demos did not have the now-unlimited power of systemic BIG Tech and Leftmedia free speech suppression acting as political surrogates for them. Those two factors alone are now the greatest threat to "free and fair elections."

So what's the centerpiece of the Demos' midterm strategy?

According to Biden's chief of staff, Ron Klain, here is the message: "The president has delivered the largest economic recovery plan since Roosevelt, the largest infrastructure plan since Eisenhower, the most judges confirmed since Kennedy, the second largest health care bill since Johnson, and the largest climate change bill in history."

But the real midterm centerpiece, the foundation of their "hate and division" election strategy, is to make it all about Donald Trump and his "semi-fascist" hordes of "Trumpies," as Biden most recently coined them, in order to rally the Democrat Party's Trump-hating base.

Focusing all his wrath on Trump's "extremist" legions of "MAGA Republicans" in his latest Soviet dictatorial-style red-set screed, Biden promoted himself as the savior of America's soul and the great defender of "democracy" (which he errantly referenced 32 times to describe our Republic) against those MAGA Republican "threats" to democracy.

Nobody should be surprised by that strategy, given the entire J6 "insurrection" investigation has been about keeping Trump front and center through the midterms, much the same reason for the timing of the Mar-a-Lago search and seizure a full 18 months after Trump left office.

Demos are certain that making the upcoming election about Trump is a winning strategy, and that is likely to at least curb the House losses. As I wrote at the end of July when Biden's polling bottomed out, "If Trump announces his 2024 candidacy before the midterm elections, Demos will celebrate!" And indeed they will, because, as they demonstrated in the 2020 election, they are masters of political hate and division, and with nothing else to run on, running against Trump again is their best option.

That is also why they supported some Trump-endorsed congressional primary candidates, believing that his "election deniers" can be defeated by Democrat candidates.

Is that strategy working?

As an indicator of national political sentiments, six weeks ago, Biden had successfully unified a record majority of Americans who disapproved of his performance — Biden's polling, and the Demos' midterm prospects, looked bleak. At that time his low approval benchmark was 36.8%.

Now, Biden's approval is up six points to 42.8%. Yes, that is still far under the 50% needed to bolster hope of maintaining the status quo in the House and Senate after the midterm elections — if Biden's ratings are not already discounted because of his ineptitude and senility. And as I noted previously, exercise caution when interpreting political polling.

That being said, it is safe to draw some conclusions about the recent and marked shift in Biden's approval ratings.

Demos and their Leftmedia publicists started elevating coverage of their arch nemesis, Donald Trump, making sure he was dominating headlines.

Yes, Biden had a couple of political victories that coincided with his rising approval polling.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) punked Republicans and voted for Biden's inflationary so-called Inflation Reduction Act. And a week later, the July inflation report was out and the CPI did not increase over the previous month — because Biden-induced record-high fuel prices began to drop. On that news, Biden the math magician claimed repeatedly, "Our economy had 0% inflation in the month of July. Zero percent." He was counting on his low-info constituents to believe that the 8.5% annual inflation rate in July was actually "ZERO"!

But Biden's approval numbers are about to hit a ceiling.

The fake Inflation Reduction Act has been debunked and the CPI numbers just released for August were a disaster for all American consumers. Despite more fuel price declines, inflation is rising again. That news sent the equity markets plummeting almost 5%, hitting the investment and retirement accounts of more than 145 million Americans and their families hard. Those markets are a barometer of economic outlook.

How did Biden spin that news? The tone-deaf POTUS threw a party at the White House, claiming victory over inflation, which is not the experience of American families. It was surreal. The closest thing anyone in Biden's circle admitted about rising inflation was this flimsy remark from his chief economic advisor, Gene Sperling: "I think we would have liked to have seen the core inflation numbers, uh, do better today."

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) noted, "This is an example, again, of the complete split screen we see in this country between the White House celebrating and the American people dealing with the reality."

Fact is, Biden has added almost $5 TRILLION in inflationary spending to the national debt despite his claims about deficit reduction, and his student loan bailout will add almost another $950 billion.

Consequently, the Demos will be trying to shift the news cycle back to Trump, and their secondary base inflamer, abortion.

A close second to their Trump strategy is to turn the fallout from the SCOTUS ruling affirming the right to life into midterm votes. That outcome has reinvigorated the Left, particularly the constituency Demos depend on as their most loyal political dupes, women. Of course, Demo strategists count on all their constituents being, well, "stupid."

For reasons known only to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), in what appears to be a great campaign soundbite for Democrats, he just proposed a federal ban on abortions after 15 weeks of gestation. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell responded that he would bring the legislation before the Senate if Republicans regain a majority but noted correctly that most Republicans "prefer that this be dealt with at the state level."

But Trump is their centerpiece. As political analyst John Podhoretz notes: "Biden wants Trump angry, and loud, and silencing every other voice but his own. It's not an accident that Biden's rise and the Democratic enthusiasm surge has come in tandem with Trump once again being at the top of news cycle over the past six weeks. Biden knows he won in 2020 by successfully making the election a referendum on Trump. Nothing would make him happier than having the 2022 election continue in that vein."

Likewise, law professor Glenn Reynolds, noted for founding InstaPundit, affirms, "Democrats want the midterms to be a referendum on Trump, not bungling Biden — and the media are compliant." He adds: "Today's news almost seems calculated to bring Trump to the forefront ... because it is calculated to bring Trump to the forefront. That's because if it's a referendum on Biden, the Democrats will lose, hands-down."

Furthermore, as a result of Trump's rising media profile since July, independent voters, who favored Republicans by 12 points when Trump was out of the news cycle, now prefer Democrats by three points, a 15-point swing.

While Democrats loathe Trump, it is clear their political fortunes still depend on him.

The Demos' Trump strategy is working, though some would argue that Trump's higher profile is firing up his base. However, if 2020 is any indication, that will not offset the legions of leftist Trump haters — except in those swing states that have improved election integrity since 2020.

The only thing that will short-circuit their Trump strategy is if Trump himself exits the 2024 running and pledges to support one of the younger, very capable conservatives.

So, what do I think will be the midterm election outcome? The only poll that matters is the one on November 8, but if Republicans do not rally, they will retake the House but by a much smaller margin than in the 2010 midterm election, and Democrats will likely pick up two Senate seats. Of course, a lot can happen in the next eight weeks — and if the economic outlook worsens, as it did last week, Democrats will suffer more losses. ESR

Mark Alexander is the executive editor of the Patriot Post.

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